Ups and Downs: An intermittent look at the big plays and fumbles in the political world:



NEOCONSERVATIVES
UP: Neocons have stuck to their ideological guns and are demanding that the Administration stop playing Pangloss and increase the American military presence in Iraq.

DOWN: Criticizing a President you otherwise have an affinity for is always tough, but the neocon decision to present our woes in Iraq as Rumsfeld's fault may cause problems for the Administration down the line; if picked up, the Rumsfeld-to-blame meme could reinforce a latent public perception of Administration policy as controlled by Rumsfeld, Ashcroft, and Cheney -- which could make '04 in part a referendum on three very divisive and often unpopular characters.



DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
UP: The not-so-fab nine have begun directly addressing the Administration's foreign policy -- the Admin is staying fairly quiet on Iraq (especially after the generally ill-received Presidential address), which gives them an opportunity to help shape public perception of Iraq as a catastrophe in the making. (Sure, it's not fair and not accurate, but this is politics, after all.)

DOWN: If Wes Clark joins the race, every criticism of the Admin's foreign policy becomes an implicit endorsement of the retired general.



THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
UP: Bush has amassed a huge warchest to spend during an entirely unopposed primary race, as well as the bully pulpit of the Presidency.

DOWN: The media is beginning to report unfavorably on what they see as manipulative political tactics on the part of the Administration. (Are there any other kind of political tactics?) The sudden change of topics from WMD to terrorism in Iraq; the use of September 11 to justify everything from tax cuts to that political warchest; and the recent Showtime movie that veers into partisan hagiography have all fallen under media scrutiny, and too much political (as opposed to Presidential) exposure could backfire.



THE DEAN CAMPAIGN
UP: Dean's people correctly noted that Clark's possible candidacy is still open to being disturbed by last-minute shifts in the political wind, and worked the press to get a story out showing Clark as a possible VP.

DOWN: The story was sourced to the Dean campaign, making it an obvious political trick. Hint for the Dean Team: the entire point of a dirty trick (or a slightly soiled one, like this) is to conceal your role in it.

 
Two quickies: From the left, David Greenberg bashes Bush at the CJR, saying that a lie's not a lie when it's an official untruth; Lenzner and Kristol fils have a nice synoptic piece on Leo Strauss over at The Public Interest (I still don't agree with his take on Machiavelli, though).