Lessons of history: "Uncle Joe" carefully courted Franklin Roosevelt, promising that he "would grant freedom of religion, private ownership, and greater democracy in the Soviet Union, the name of which he would change back to Russia." Credulous and gullible, FDR promised Poland to the Soviet dictator....

What the story says through prudent omission is that FDR's outstretched hand for Stalin -- who reciprocated with bugs and betrayal -- holds lessons for the current President, whose appreciation for Vladimir Vladmirovich Putin's soul doesn't seem to have dimmed after Russia's opposition to the war in Iraq, its co-sponsorship of the anti-hegemonic Shanghai Six, persistent evidence that the GRU has carried out terror operations within Moscow to build public support for the vicious war in Chechnya, and the increasingly authoritarian tactics used by Putin's faction to cement his power base. Russia may no longer be an implacably totalitarian foe, but it's hardly our geopolitical friend.

 
"Way. To. Go." This is both ironic and indicative of problems with our HUMINT resources in Iraq: Salman Pax gets raided.

 
Shop talk: The good professor at Cold Spring Shops has been exceptionally busy lately. Head on over and do some reading.

Also, a roundup on some other interesting and worthwhile blogs: Irish nationalist Paul Dunne is writing under the same banner, but a new bannerhead. Amy Sullivan, et al. can be found at Political Aims, as Tim Blair can be at his site. Cronaca has enough good posts that I'd do better just to direct you there. Sgt. Stryker celebrates, if that's the word, an anniversary. The always-interesting conservative blog Flit "does" Daniel Pipes. "How Appealing" goes on vacation; Marstonalia is at the APSA meeting, where I probably should be myself.

 
From the mailbag:

From: worldlotto@os.dk
Received: from localhost.localdomain ([195.41.46.162]) by fepY.post.tele.dk
Subject: WINNING NOTIFICATION !!!!!!!!!!

World Email Lottery
BURDENSTRAAT 21B,
2053 DS AMSTERDAM,
THE NETHERLANDS
GOVERNMENT ACCREDITED LICENSED LOTTERY PROMOTERS.

Sir / Madam

We are pleased to inform you of the result of the Webmasters Global Email Lottery programs held on the 30th June, 2003. Your e-mail address attached to ticket number 025-1146-1992-750 with Serial Number 2113-05 Drew lucky numbers 13-15-22-37-39-43 which consequently Won in the 1st category with another lucky winner, you both have therefore been approved for a lump sum pay of US$1,000,000.00 (One Million United States Dollars). US$500,000.00 (Five hundred thousand United States Dollars) for each Lucky winner.

CONGRATULATIONS!!!

Due to mix up of some numbers and names, we ask that you keep your winning information confidential until your claims has been processed and your money paid out to you. This is part of our security protocol to avoid double claiming and unwarranted abuse of this program by some participants.

All participants were selected through a computer ballot system drawn from over 200,000 companies and 30,000,000 individual email addresses and names from all over the world. This promotional program takes place every three-year.

To file for your claims, please contact our FIDUCIAL AGENT in The Netherlands for your Winning claims and Processing E-mail: transatlanticbv@netscape.net. (Contact Officer- PETER OVERMASS) Please, be aware that our Paying Bank will effect Payment Swiftly upon satisfactory report, Verifications and validations provided by our processing Agent that would be designated to your file.

Remember, all winning must be CLAIMED not later than 30th of September 2003. After this date all unclaimed funds would be included in the next stake.

Please note that in other to avoid unnecessary delays and complications remember to quote your reference information in all correspondence. Furthermore, should there be any eventual change of information please inform our Agent as quickly as possible.

Yours truly,

Mr HARRISON VAN DAMME.
Games / Lottery Coordinator.

World Email Lottery
Central Europe Zone.

---

Dear Mr. Van Damme:

I was absolutely overjoyed to find that I had been selected as a winner in your online lottery, and deeply appreciate the "five hundred thousand United States Dollars" I've won. The unsolicited nature of this offer, coming as it does from a company whose address exists in no map of Amsterdam that I can find, leaves me utterly stunned -- all the more so since I do not live in any "Central Europe Zone."

Your timing is exceptionally fortituous, since I have recently agreed to help one MR. AUGUST OSAGIE, the managing director of ALL STATE TRUST BANK OF NIGERIA in a financial matter he is handling.

MR. OSAGIE has graciously decided to list me as next of kin of the late MR. WAHAB DANIEL, whose fortune of SIX MILLION, TWO HUNDRED AND THIRTY THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS has gone unclaimed since his tragic death in an auto accident.

All MR. OSAGIE requires is a nominal cash investment for preprocessing fees and the cost of the legal transactions. Following that, I expect to have MR. DANIEL'S fortune transferred to my account shortly, of which I will keep 20%, or $1,246,000. (ONE MILLION TWO HUNDRED AND FORTY SIX THOUSAND DOLLARS U.S.)

Because I believe that idle funds are the tax man's playground, I have decided to put the monies received from MR. OSAGIE to work. To these ends, I have also been in contact with DR. IBRAHIM GEORGE QUATTARA of the FEDERAL MINISTRY OF HEALTH AND SOCIAL SERVICES in COTE D'IVOIRE.

DR. QUATTARA has accumulated, through the manipulation of OVER INFLATED CONTRACTS, the princely sum of ELEVEN MILLION; FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND UNITED STATES DOLLARS (US$11,500,000.00). Because these are not recognized as legitimate funds by his government, DR. QUATTARA needs help moving the money to another country. Of course, there will be a small cash investment needed to cover processing fees, legal transactions, and necessary bribes.

70% will be retained for future claim by DR. QUATTARA AND HIS COLLEAGUES, while I will receive 30% for my aid in this matter. or $3,450,000. (THREE MILLION FOUR HUNDRED AND FIFTY THOUSAND DOLLARS U.S.)

In a remarkable coincidence, MR. KENNEDY MUYANGA of SIERRA LEONE has appealed for my help. MR. MUYANGA'S FATHER was SPECIAL ADVISOR TO MAJOR JOHNNY PAUL KOROMAH, and MR. MUYANGA now holds a great deal of money from FOREIGN EXCHANGE DIAMOND EARNINGS in a BANK IN DUBAI.

MR. MUYANGA received my name from the United States Trade Mission in that country, my acumen as a businessperson evidently spreading far beyond my nation's borders, and has requested my aid in remitting his earnings to a United States bank.

The BANK IN DUBAI requires a small amount of money as collateral during the funds transfer period. In exchange for helping MR. MUYANGA move US$35MILLION (THIRTY FIVE MILLION UNITED STATES DOLLARS) from DUBAI, I am promised 50% of total holdings, or $17,500,000 (SEVENTEEN MILLION FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS U.S.).

As you can see, your lottery could not have come along at a better time. Using only the winnings from your online lottery, I will make a total profit of SEVENTEEN MILLION DOLLARS U.S.

I invite you to join this exciting business opportunity, which all my prospective business partners assure me is 100% RISK FREE. In exchange for your aid in this matter, I offer 20% of our final holdings, which will amount to $3,500,000 (THREE MILLION FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS U.S.)

All that you will have to do is contact MR. AUGUST OSAGIE (august_osagie@thepostmaster.net) and provide him with the bank account codes of your World Email Lottery so he can withdraw the five hundred thousand dollars that I have won.

Please ask MR. OSAGIE to contact DR. QUATTARA at (dr_georgequattara@indiatimes.com) or his direct telephone number (008821621127953) to provide direct payment of any necessary monies; then have DR. QUATTARA contact MR. KENNEDY MUYANGA at his e-mail address, (kennedymuyanga7@netscape.net) with his bank codes. Of course, both DR. QUATTARA and MR. MUYANGA will need your financial and banking information so they can transfer the required funds to and from your accounts.

Once the seventeen million dollars has been received from MR. MUYANGA, please contact me to arrange transfer and payment of your portion.

To ensure that all relevant excise, value-added, income, and capital gains taxes are handled properly, I will forward your e-mail to the American Treasury Department and the German government. I believe that they will find your offer as compelling as I do.

Please e-mail me to confirm your interest in this exciting offer. I await your reply.

Yours truly,

The Watchful Babbler

 
The last gamble: Saddam Hussein has always been known for his bad strategic moves -- going to war with Iran, invading Kuwait, turning his military into an internal security force -- but this LA Times story provides evidence that supports what many have suspected since the war ended and occupation began: Saddam Hussein may have run a massive disinfo campaign on the West, covering up the fact that the Gulf War and its ensuing sanctions had crippled his WMD program, in an attempt to maintain a parity of terror.

[O]fficials say former Iraqi operatives have confirmed since the war that Hussein's regime sent "double agents" disguised as defectors to the West to plant fabricated intelligence. In other cases, Baghdad apparently tricked legitimate defectors into funneling phony tips about weapons production and storage sites.

"They were shown bits of information and led to believe there was an active weapons program, only to be turned loose to make their way to Western intelligence sources," said the senior intelligence official. "Then, because they believe it, they pass polygraph tests ... and the planted information becomes true to the West, even if it was all made up to deceive us."

(Free registration required for the story, but if you read the California Insider blog at the Bee, you already know how to get in.)

 
Who knew? This could be a problem for Schwarzenegger (warning: explicit content), even as one recent poll shows him with a (probably very fragile) runaway lead. (See "errata," below.) Women, social conservatives, pretty much everyone can find something to be shocked at in this interview.

More recall madness can be found at Rough & Tumble.

Errata: The referenced poll turns out to be from SurveyUSA (crosstabs here), which pretty much invalidates the results. SurveyUSA is what's called by the trade "computerized results audience polling" -- the acronym is left as an exercise for the reader -- and relies upon automated voice response rather than live human interviewers. One CRAP poll, the Rasmussen "Portrait of America" poll in 2000, had the highest error rate of all major election polls (4.5% versus an average 1.1%).

 
General studies: A good inside-baseball piece on Clark's primary chances is at the Washington Monthly, while the NYT says he's going to run.

With the publication of the Times story, whatever timetable Clark has may need to be moved up; indeed, GOP strategists, acting on the assumption that the retired general is going to enter the race, have begun preemptive turfing, charging Clark with having a pivotal role in the Waco tragedy, having gotten his promotions through political manipulation, and having almost started World War Three (when he tried to block the Russian invasion of the Pristina airport during the Kosovo conflict).

As the general will find, in politics, as in war, no plan survives contact with the enemy.

 
The loyal opposition: I feel I should direct you to the excellent labor-left writings at Nathan Newman's site.

Neoconservatives today are much in the place of the liberals of yesterday -- wondering where the intellectual opposition on the other side of the political fence has gone. (Arguably, there never was an American conservative tradition before neoconservatism, but never mind that now.) Writers like Max Sawicky and Nathan Newman prove that there are still valuable arguments to be made from the left side of the spectrum, and that's good news for theorists of all leanings.

 
Yes, but he's no longer our bastard: "Canonical" neoconservatives have always suffered from a romanticism at odds with their self-conception as Machiavellian realists -- and nowhere is this more evident than in their history of supporting in every conceivable way those soi disant "freedom fighters" who were nothing more than devils on the side of the angels. From mass graves in Guatemala to the, shall we say, regrettable sponsorship of jihadists in Afghanistan, the essentially Hegelian worldview of neoconservatives blinded them to the subtle complexities of power politics.

From the always-readable, always-important Sgt. Stryker comes a story on how America can still provide justice for those who suffered under our former allies.

 
On to Iowa: A Zogby poll commissioned by the "Draft Wesley Clark" organization shows few barriers and much latent support for the retired General (even discounting the deficiencies of the "blind bio" approach, which are serious enough to effectively discredit a large part of the poll).

That isn't particularly interesting -- after all, the Democratic field is even more dispiriting than usual this election cycle -- but what is interesting is what the poll reveals about front-running dark horse Howard Dean. According to the poll, voter adhesion to Dean is remarkably low -- most of his supporters are only moderately attached to the former governor. This, of course, contravenes the Conventional Wisdom that Dean has limited but strong support from a small number of passionate lefties; instead, it appears that Dean has simply been the best of a bad lot for many.

Dean is now seen by many as the front runner (Lieberman has wide name recognition but the enmity of many Democrats; Gephardt has Big Labor's support but can't get any traction on the press; Edwards is now hobbled by the CW that he's a showhorse trial lawyer with more pretensions than potential; Kerry is often floated as the man to beat, but ends up following on most policy issues; and so on), but the Zogby poll suggests that he doesn't have much else than the Big Mo.

Perhaps realizing this, his team has resolved to outspend his rivals in Iowa, spending millions of dollars early in the race to establish him as the leader. Although this has tactical drawbacks -- it leaves him vulnerable later in the race, when his rivals aren't as close to the public-campaign spending limits -- it may be necessary in the event that a more attractive candidate, such as Clark, enters the fray. If his support is as soft as the numbers suggest, Dean may find himself in the unenviable position of whipping up a crowd, only to see it coalesce on the other side of the midway.