Today's Threat Indicator:




"High risk of terror attacks." Call the office and refuse to come in until they provide you with three days' water supply and a prescription for Cipro. Avoid public events such as anti-war rallies. Fried foods OK.

 
Thank you, Paul and Patty: To commemorate the latest change in the DHS warning system (today, burnt umber; tomorrow, cherry blossom rose with a touch of sunburst gold), and John Ashcroft's recommendation that Americans "continue their daily work and leisure activities" even though the DHS threat indicator advises citizens to "avoid high profile or symbolic locations," we present this this public service announcement. Should you have any questions, please direct them to Bert the Turtle, c/o Office of Tom Ridge, Department of Homeland Security.

 
Promises given, promises broken: No matter how strongly I support what the striped-pants brigade calls "regime change," the Administration keeps finding ways to make me nervous about their stewardship of America's foreign policy. Consider an exchange between AURN correspondent April Ryan and Ari Fleischer at today's press briefing:

Q [W]hy is bin Laden such a taboo subject around here? This is like --

MR. FLEISCHER: It seems to be the only subject around here.

Q Today. Today. But, typically, there's -- you hear more Saddam Hussein. You don't hear about Osama bin Laden dead or alive, or whatever, anymore.

MR. FLEISCHER: Right, right.

Q Why? Why?

MR. FLEISCHER: For the obvious reasons. Today there's talk of a new video tape, or a new tape that -- I'm not sure it's video, I shouldn't say that. A new tape that gives rise to the very questions that you're asking. But on any given day, the threat doesn't come only from one person, the threat comes from the network, from the al Qaeda operatives. And that's why the President doesn't focus on any one person.

"There is no question [bin Laden] is what we would call a prime suspect.  And if he thinks he can hide and run from the United States and our allies, he will be sorely mistaken." (George W. Bush, September 15, 2001)

"No question [bin Laden] is the prime suspect.  No question about that." (George W. Bush, September 16, 2001)

"This group and its leader -- a person named Osama bin Laden -- are linked to ... thousands of these terrorists in more than 60 countries." (George W. Bush, September 20, 2001)

"[A]ll roads lead to al Qaeda and pinpoint Osama bin Laden." (Ari Fleischer, October 2, 2001)

"[T]here is one way to shorten the campaign in Afghanistan, and that's for the -- Osama bin Laden and his leadership to be turned over so they can be brought to justice." (George W. Bush, October 9, 2001)

"Osama  bin  Laden  is an evil man.  His heart has been so corrupted that  he's willing to take innocent life.  And we are fighting evil, and we will continue to fight evil, and we will not stop until we defeat evil." (George W. Bush, November 2, 2001)

"[W]e have put a sound strategy in place that has got Osama bin Laden and the al Qaeda thugs on the run.  And I will tell them that we will bring them to justice. ...  There's no question in my mind.  We know he hides in caves, and we're shutting down caves.  We know he moves around at night, and we're looking for him." (George W. Bush, November 7, 2001)

In response to a question about Iraqi noncompliance with arms inspections: "The President remains focused on phase one of this campaign against terrorism, and phase one is still well underway and is not yet complete. Phase one involves the destruction of al Qaeda, the bringing of Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants to justice, and that's where the President's focus still remains." (Ari Fleischer, November 27, 2001)

"And, slowly, but surely, we're tightening the net on Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda." (George W. Bush, December 4, 2001)

"The one remaining major piece of business [in Afghanistan], of course, is to get Osama bin Laden as well, too." (Dick Cheney, December 11, 2001)

"[The President] remains committed and resolved and will not leave Afghanistan militarily until the objectives are achieved. And those objectives are the destruction of the al Qaeda network, including bringing to justice not only Osama bin Laden, but his top lieutenants...." (Ari Fleischer, December 17, 2001)

"Osama bin Laden is going to be brought to justice.  It may happen tomorrow, it may happen in a month, it may happen in a year. But he is going to be brought to justice.  He's on the run.  He thinks he can hide ... But when the dust clears, we'll find out where he is, and he'll be brought to justice." (George W. Bush, December 17, 2001)

"[W]e know for a fact that Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda network have been doing everything they can to acquire nuclear, chemical or biological weapons." (Dick Cheney, February 18, 2002)

"I know he's on the run, if he's running at all.  And I know there's no cave deep enough for Osama bin Laden. " (George W. Bush, March 4, 2002)

"With respect to the connections to al-Qaida, we haven't been able to pin down any connection ... between the al-Qaida organization and Saddam Hussein." (Dick Cheney, March 24, 2002)

"[W]e will, over time, find and defeat the enemies of the United States. In the case of Osama bin Laden -- as President Bush said recently -- If he's alive, we'll get him. If he's not alive -- we already got him. (Applause)" (Dick Cheney, August 26, 2002)

 
"I'll outscream all the speakers, and make Nicias stand aghast." "The idea that liberals feel the shuttle explosion was a tragedy is patent nonsense," says Ann Coulter in her most recent column. "They were jumping for joy at this new excuse to denounce the 'march to war.'"

Coulter and her fellow-travellers have come to remind me of Cleon, the Athenian politician who Plutarch described as "remarkable for nothing but his loud voice and brazen face," and whose blustery incompetence presaged the fall of Athens in perhaps the first great "clash of civilizations," the war between Sparta and Athens.

Cleon appears in Thucydides' account of the Peloponnesian War as "the most violent man at Athens, and at that time by far the most powerful with the commons." In the Mitylenian Debates, he comes across as an imperialist demagogue, reveling in despotism and violence, arguing for the execution of thousands of Mitylenian rebels, and crowing that "the penalty of rebellion is death." The equally imperialist Diodotus, who narrowly triumphed over Cleon and his radicals to save the people of Mitylene from an Athenian massacre, comes across as a pacifist dove compared to his political nemesis.

Cleon continued as a goad and gadfly to the leaders of Athens; when an Athenian blockade of the island of Pylos failed, he blamed the military leader Nicias -- who promptly resigned, giving his command to Cleon in an attempt to expose him as a coward. Unfortunately for Nicias, Cleon had the sense to keep in command another general, Demosthenes, whose inspired leadership turned the storming of Pylos, a dangerous course of action opposed by the military, including Demosthenes himself, into Athenian victory.

Cleon's part in the triumph at Pylos was negligible, yet he was given all the glory for the military victory. In 422, following the expiration of the armistice with Sparta, Cleon's hubris flowered in full when he convinced the Athenians to let him mount a massive expedition abroad. After some failures in the field and receipt of word that the great Spartan commander Brasidas was preparing a counter-attack, Cleon's stock with the Athenian military was low, the soldiers "reflect[ing] on the weakness and incompetence of their commander, and the skill and valour that would be opposed to him, and on their own original unwillingness to accompany him."

Cleon's "bridge too far" was the Macedonian city of Amphipolis, a city that he thought to take with virtually no opposition. When Brasidas' own forces appeared at the gates of Amphipolis, Cleon attempted a retreat, but, [t]his however not being quick enough for him, he joined the retreat in person and made the right wing wheel round, thus turning its unarmed side to the enemy." Basidas took immediate advantage of this blunder, charging into the center of the Athenian forces and sending them into immediate rout. Cleon, terrified for his life, was run to ground, ending an ignominous career, his crimes hidden only by the exigencies of war.

In the end, Cleon's overconfidence overcame not only himself, but his nation as well. Athens' defeat was seemingly foreordained at Amphipolis, the city falling into a rhythm of dictatorship and populist chaos that persisted until Thrasybulus overthrew the Thirty Tyrants of Sparta, restoring some measure of stability and a long-denied democracy to his polis.

Perhaps the parallels between our times are illusory, and perhaps they simply illuminate the timelessness of politics and war. But listening to the clamour and tumult that arises from the punditry, I can't help but fear otherwise.

 
The limits of the law: The state cannot, under Ford v. Wainwright, 477 U.S. 399 (1986), execute a person who is mentally incompetent. However, it can execute an individual whose medications render him Ford-competent. Within limits, the state can also forcibly medicate an individual if he poses a threat to himself or others, and (depending on how SCOTUS rules in the upcoming Sell v. U.S.) to bring him to trial. But can the state forcibly medicate an individual, known to pose a threat to himself and others when unmedicated, when the primary effect of his medication will be the resumption of his Ford-competency? In the 8th Circuit, which previously decided Sell, the answer is yes.

But there's a catch: the AMA's Council on Ethical and Judicial Affairs has recommended that "When a condemned prisoner has been declared incompetent to be executed, physicians should not treat the prisoner with the intent of restoring competence unless a commutation order is issued before treatment begins." The 8th Circuit's decision has effectively made the physician the weight upon the balance of life, which will almost certainly bring him into conflict with the state's desire for execution. I fully expect that the courts will be forced to revisit this situation in the future.

Worst Case Scenario: Agree or disagree, it doesn't get much worse than this.