New update in the States section: county returns map for Arizona.

 
In antiquity, the Persians, having expanded from modern Iran and conquered Babylon and Egypt, set its sights on the West, seeing in the Greeks an easy conquest. But their gamble, like that of Saddam's kingdom, ended with a ruined state and failed leader. While the Persian emperor Xerxes watched from his throne atop the hill of Egaleo, the Greek general Themistocles shattered the Persian fleet. Hegel neatly summarizes the importance of this battle:

Greater battles, unquestionably, have been fought; but [the battles against the Persians] live immortal not in the historical records of Nations only, but also of Science and of Art [and] of the Noble and the Moral generally. For these are World-Historical victories; they were the salvation of culture and Spiritual vigor, and they rendered the Asiatic principle powerless. ...

In the case before us, the interest of the World’s History hung trembling in the balance. Oriental despotism -- a world united under one lord and sovereign -- on the one side, and separate states -- insignificant in extent and resources, but animated by free individuality -- on the other side, stood front to front in array of battle. Never in History has the superiority of spiritual power over material bulk -- and that of no contemptible amount -- been made so gloriously manifest.

Aeschylus' "The Persians" shows Xerxes returned to Persia, wrestling with the consequences of his failure, lamenting that "I was born / To crush, to desolate my ruined country."


CHORUS
Is all thy glory lost?


XERXES
Seest thou these poor remains of my rent robes?


CHORUS
I see, I see.


XERXES
And this ill-furnish'd quiver?


CHORUS
Wherefore preserved?


XERXES
To store my treasured arrows.


CHORUS
Few, very few.


XERXES
And few my friendly aides.


CHORUS
I thought these Greeks shrunk appall'd at arms.


XERXES
No: they are bold and daring: these sad eyes
Beheld their violent and deathful deeds.


The real Xerxes, like Saddam, probably never learned the lessons the fictional character did; he spent the rest of his life locked in his palace, living a dissipated life until he was assassinated by his vizier, Artabanus. Saddam himself seems broken in his defiance; whatever remains of his life will probably be lived in painful delusion.

Xerxes' son, Artaxerxes, is famed for allowing Ezra and the Israelites to rebuild Jerusalem, even paying for the endeavor with "silver and gold which the king and his advisers ... freely contributed to the God of Israel, who resides in Jerusalem." We can only hope that the next government of today's Babylon is as wise.

 
Robert David Sullivan's 10-region map of the American electorate is a must-read as the Season kicks into high gear.

 
We've started to do some back-of-the-envelope strategy for the 2004 general election (we're doing the same thing for the Democratic primary, but the proportional nature of the system combined with the uncommitted superdelegates makes that a much tougher job). By looking at current polls, 2000 voting data, historical state voting trends and party affiliation of state officeholder -- plus some old-fashioned gut feelings -- we've worked out a tentative analysis of where we expect the electoral votes to fall in 2004.

Primarily, what we've identified are those states where the battles will have to take place, and what will be needed to win. As the primary winds down and we enter the general election, the polls will let us begin handicapping each state with some (hopefully substantial) degree of precision. In the meantime, let the armchair campaign management begin!




BUSH BASE:
Alaska, Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming; Colorado and Georgia.

Most of these are traditionally solid Republican states that are almost impossible for Bush to lose. Colorado and Georgia went for Bush in 2000 and, as rural states with significant military presences (Army in Georgia, Air Force in Colorado), Bush maintains a significant edge. Without doing more than desultory campaigning, Bush picks up 162 electoral votes.

BUSH TRENDERS:
Tennessee, Ohio, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada.

These states are often closely-fought -- few expect Florida to be easily won in this election, of course, and states like Tennessee and Louisiana are perpetually in play -- but they are currently trending Bush. This doesn't mean, however, that they are in any way solid BC04 states; in Nevada, for example, recent polls suggest that Bush has broad but fairly weak support amongst the voters, while his approval rating in Ohio, while still remarkably strong, has slipped dramatically from the spring. These states will bring a potential 87 electoral votes to BC04.

Expected "safe" and "trending" BC04 votes: 249




DEMOCRATIC BASE:
California, Connecticut, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Vermont.

The Dems have their own base states which pose a minimal risk of going Republican in 2004, though BC04 can be expected to drop a large amount of money into California, forcing the Dems to spend defensively in an already expensive state. The Democrats can expect to win 125 electoral votes out of their base.

DEMOCRATIC TRENDERS:
Maine, Michigan, Washington.

These states are likely to drop into the blue column, but they aren't sure bets by any means. Michigan will be exceptionally important as a bulwark against potential losses in electoral powerhouses like Florida and medium-sized states like Tennessee. The three states have 32 electoral votes between them.

Expected "safe" and "trending" Democratic votes: 157




SWING STATES:
Arkansas, Arizona, Delaware, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, West Virginia.

These are the states that are in play without any clear trend and, along with the trending states, are where we'll see the bulk of the election play out. There are 132 votes in these states.




So, assuming that both sides can take their trending states off the table, that leaves BC04 looking for 21 electoral votes, and the Dems trying to pick up 113. Obviously, Bush has a significant edge: if he picks up just the states he won in 2000 (Arkansas, Arizona, Kentucky and West Virginia), he gets 29 electoral votes and another four years. If the Democratic candidate wins all the states Gore won in 2000, he's left 10 votes short of victory.

Demographic changes from the 2000 census have slightly shifted the playing field towards Bush. To win, Democrats will have to take all the states they won in 2000, plus grab ten or more electoral votes from states that went Bush in 2000. One go-for-broke chance, advocated by Schaller in the Washington Post, is to give up the South and concentrate on Arizona, where Bush is running just around 50% in head-to-head polls (Democratic candidates cluster around 35%) -- if the Dems keep all the states they won in 2000, Arizona's 10 electoral votes puts them right at the tipping point.

This strategy is, of course, the slimmest of slim margins: everything has to go right, whereas a Democratic candidate who can effectively campaign in the South could find more flexibility in his choice of attacks. One effect of a Howard Dean candidacy -- assuming that a liberal, irreligious Northeasterner associated with opposition to war and support for gay civil unions would have trouble campaigning in the South -- would be to foreclose options in states like Tennessee, Louisiana, and Kentucky, and consequently narrow the critical path for a Democratic victory.

Bush, on the other hand, tends to have slightly stronger support in his home states (to judge by 2000 election results), which gives him the freedom to spend less time on defense and more time foraying into Democratic states, seeking to pick off swing states that went to Gore in 2000. Although it's premature to say that 2004 is Bush's election to lose, it's undeniable that the Democrats will have to operate at peak efficiency to mount a successful challenge in the upcoming election.

 
We've added details on House and Senate races in Louisiana and South Dakota.

 
"We Got Him"



U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Paul Bremer watches video of Saddam Hussein undergoing a medical examination following the former dictator's capture. (Photo: U.S. Defense Department)


Former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was captured by U.S. forces in Adwar, a small village some ten miles outside of Hussein's home base of Tikrit. Hussein was found hiding in a small hole covered by a rug and a layer of styrofoam, "trapped like a rat," according to Maj. General Ray Odierno. Odierno told reporters he believed the hideaway had been constructed since the U.S. invasion.

Hussein surrendered peacefully, providing a marked contrast to the defiance of his two sons, Uday and Qusay, killed by Coalition forces in July. Upon the annoucement, journalists cheered Bremer, and shortly afterwards Iraqis were seen celebrating in the streets.