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Thursday, March 18, 2004
The conseravtive wisdom on Spain is that the country is rolling over, exposing its soft belly to Islamist terrorists. While I have no doubt that the Spanish elections will be seen by the terrorists as a victory, I have equally strong convictions that Spain is not turning appeaser, no matter the muddled insistence of Tom Friedman. The Socialist government -- which, in the grand Continental tradition of meaningless party names, is politically and economically middle-of-the-road for Europe -- is threatening to pull its troops out of Iraq if we don't make the handover deadline this summer, a target that is looking increasingly hard to hit. If we are still conducting OOTW this summer, and there's no reason to think we won't, any Spanish pullout will affect the Polish effort, for whom Spain is handling logistics, communications, and force deployment in the central-southern security area. This will result in a minor hitch in operations as America moves to take over the role, and will certainly embolden Islamist and nationalist critics of the Coalition occupation.
Nonetheless, Spain will remain an ally in the war against terror, even if it drops out of the war against Baathism. And it's important to remember that Spain is hardly the most questionable ally we have in the war against Islamist terror.
Things are murky in the world of counterterrorism: France led the coalition of the unwilling during the runup to Iraq one year ago, but is front and center in the hunt for bin Ladin; Britain is seen as our closest ally in the war on terror, but its asylum laws have protected virulent Islamism in the middle of London, and French intelligence officials privately believe Downing Street let Algerian terror groups run free in Britain as long as their violence remained off the shores of Albion. Russia is an ally, but its continuing protection of Transdniester has effectively kept the global arms bazaar open for terrorists, and a large number of high-tech weapons such as the RPG-29 Vampir anti-tank missile have shown up in Iraqi hands. Saudi Arabia's deals with terrorists have surely led to the al'Qaeda attacks on America, while Pakistan not only supported terror groups and the Taliban, but also ran a global black market in nuclear weapons, though now it seems poised to capture bin Ladin's right-hand man. Syria is a rogue state, but one with a vested interest in helping us defeat Islamist terrorism; India, a strategic ally, is making things worse internationally through BJP-aided clashes between Hindu militants and Indian Muslims. In Somalia, Hussein Aideed, son of the warlord (and ally of Islamist radicals) who we tried to kill in the early 1990s, is helping us roll up al'Qaeda forces in that war-torn country.
The "wilderness of mirrors" that is counterterrorism does not admit chiaroscuro views of the world, and pretending that such an image is accurate will cripple the delicate diplomatic, military and intelligence efforts needed to protect our nations. Hopefully, this fit of pique against the Spanish will quickly dissipate, and we can return to the serious work of keeping ourselves safe -- all of us.
posted by Watchful at 6:36 PM
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