Via Skippy: The latest BC04 vs. Dems matchup numbers are up from Time and CNN, and John Kerry's fundraising numbers have fallen through the floor, with Kerry expected to net only $2-3 million when the fourth quarter numbers come out.

Dean, by way of comparison, is expected to have raised almost $15 million, while Clark is believed to have raised around $12 million, which will be buttressed by an additional $3.7 million in matching funds (Dean, because of his busta-caps move, does not receive any matching funds, but is also not bound by the overall and per-state expenditure limits affecting publicly-financed campaigns). BC04 is likely to have paced Dean in the fourth quarter, which could give them a current warchest of $87.8 million, one of the numerous advantages of incumbency.

With Iowa coming down to a Dean-Gephardt photo finish, and Clark showing increasing strength in New Hampshire, Kerry is not well-positioned to slug it out in South Carolina, where a large black electorate could push numbers to Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley-Braun, and Southern candidates like Clark and Edwards are better positioned to connect with local voters. Kerry, once the crown prince of the primary, is not likely to make it much past February 3rd.