Things have certainly gotten interesting in Iowa: the Des Moines Register has published the Iowa Poll, showing Kerry on top with 26%, Edwards in second with 23%, and former leaders Dean and Gephardt with 20% and 18%, respectively. In other words, we're still in a four-way statistical tie.

Every candidate has specific advantages going in: Gephardt has an experienced base with long caucusgoing experience; Dean has highly motivated supporters concentrated in the densely-populated eastern portion of the state; Kerry has Whouley, who has pulled out last-minute Iowa and New Hampshire upsets before; and both Edwards and Kerry have low negatives compared to Dean and Gephardt, which makes them better second-tier candidates in caucuses where one or more of the major candidates fails to meet the minimum-supporter test, but the more economically-liberal Gephardt and antiwar Dean are more likely to pick up any Kucinich supporters who show up. So here, too, everyone has some edge, but no one has a decisive edge.

In the meantime, Dean took out precious stump time to go visit Georgia, where he got some nice words (but no endorsement) from Jimmy Carter, to whom Trippi has often compared Dean to. Fairly or unfairly, unless Dean ekes a win out tomorrow, this will be viewed as the fatal blow for his campaign in Iowa by Tuesday-morning campaign managers. If Dean does win, then the last-minute appearance of Judy Steinberg (or is it now, for political reasons, Dean nee Steinberg?) in Iowa will be credited as the factor he needed. Or something.

Okay, so how will things work tomorrow? Here's a quick breakdown.

Each precinct will elect a certain number of delegates who will attend the county conventions on March 13. The delegates are elected by supporters of certain candidates at the precinct level.

Although the delegates can be elected by a simple majority (and if only one delegate is to be elected, it must be done this way), it takes more than 85% of the caucusgoers to make that decision. So the "preference group" system is the usual way things work.

At the beginning of the caucus (after officers are elected, mission statements recited, etc.), the caucusgoers divide up into candidate preference groups (PG). There are two important rules to follow here: first, any preference group must meet a minimum membership that is based upon the number of delegates to be elected and the number of attending caucusgoers. If one delegate is elected, a simple majority vote is taken; if two delegates, a PG must have at least 25% of the attendees; if three, ~17% (1/6); four or more, 15%. If a PG doesn't meet that minimum level, the members of that PG must join another preference group until all PGs meet the minimum.

Second, there may only be as many PGs as there are delegates to elect, so if, for example, a three-delegate precinct has otherwise viable PGs for all four candidates, the smallest PGs will be forced to realign until there are as many viable PGs as delegates.

When these tests are met, each PG gets to elect a certain number of county delegates. The precise number is calculated by multiplying the number of PG members P by the number of delegates the precinct elects D, and dividing the result by the number of attendees A ( (P*D)/A ). The PGs then elect their delegates, who get to go to the county conventions on March 13 -- where, of course, yet another caucus is held.

At the county caucus level, each PG must meet a 15% threshold. Once all PGs are viable, the percentage of attendees each PG represents is multiplied by the number of district delegates the county is to elect (if there are more PGs than delegates, then "the preference group(s) with the largest fraction shall be awarded the delegate(s) in question," a bit of verbiage that is likely to trigger several different interpretations and a whole lot of argument in some caucuses).

Come April 24, the delegates elected from the county caucuses troop off to the district conventions, where they elect district-level national delegates. Finally, on June 12, the state convention handles cleanup by selecting at-large delegates, PLEOs, and so on.

Is this any way to choose 56 Democratic delegates? It's a Byzantine system, but the Hawkeye Caucuses seem to suit the state, which (along with New Hampshire) has elevated national retail politics to an almost absurd level. Just remember that whoever wins Iowa tomorrow may not actually win Iowa.