The BC04 poll numbers being reported, if they are to be trusted, look especially bad for the Administration: Americans trust Bush over Democrats 2-1 on national security issues, but still split down to a statistical tie on re-elect.

Paradoxically, the news that the public still doesn't trust the Dems on security should be cheering to Democratic strategists. First of all, it shows that a hedgehog strategy -- the One Big Thing -- isn't going to get BC04 the win this year. Instead, they'll be forced to compete on the domestic playing field, where Democrats are traditionally stronger. The Dems also have the advantage of going on the offensive against a lackluster recovery and mounting issues such as health care. Unless the jobs numbers begin moving at a faster pace in the next 3-4 months, the economy will be baked in the cake for November as a BC04 liability.

Second, the Dems will benefit from low expectations. If the public has already factored in the idea that BC04 is a better national security choice, that message has less utility as a campaign tool.

With 2/3 of the public believing they are less credible on national security issues, the Dems have less to defend and far more opportunity to pick up votes by way of an experienced nat-sec candidate like Kerry or Clark, or by the support of figure like Edwards advisor Gen. Hugh Shelton.

Of course, the wind can blow both ways: if BC04 makes a strong case for their domestic policies, the Dems will be cornered in precisely the same manner. But for now, with job growth still mired in a slump, the overall situation seems to slightly favor the Democrats.